Monmouth published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20 among 400 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Hampshire has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.