Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In New Hampshire, the election outcome is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 400 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New Hampshire. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this difference is negligible.