On October 10, Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 36.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 13 to August 16 with 403 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Indiana polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 54.9%. This value is 1.8 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.