CBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, interviewees from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
The results show that 37.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 46.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 21 to September 23 among 1087 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 44.6% for Clinton and 55.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Missouri sees Trump at 56.3% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll Trump's poll average is 0.9 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.1 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.