KSTP/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 16 and September 20. The sample size was 625 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. In the most recent KSTP/SurveyUSA poll on November 2 Clinton obtained only 48.3%, while Trump obtained 51.7%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Minnesota. This value is 1 percentage point lower than her respective numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.