On October 10, Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 12 to September 14 with 625 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 52.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Minnesota. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.