Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
The results show that the two candidates can draw on the same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from September 23 to September 23 among 906 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Minnesota. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% and Trump 45.8% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Clinton has 4.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Minnesota. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.