Minnesota: Clinton tied with Trump in new Gravis poll
By On October 10, Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, both candidates have the same level of support, each with 43.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from September 23 to September 23, among a random sample of 906 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.3%. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.2% and Trump 45.8% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. Clinton has 4.2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Minnesota. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.
