On October 10, MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 24 with 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. This value is 1.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the MIRS-GSCI/Target InsyghtMIRS-GSCI poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.