FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, interviewees from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants plan to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 27 to September 27 with 1956 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.