Detroit Free Press released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 1 to October 3 among 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Michigan. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.