FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
The results show that 49.0% of respondents will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 27. A total of 1956 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.2 points. This means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. On September 7 Clinton obtained 52.8% in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll and Trump obtained only 47.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.9%. This value is 1.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.