Massachusetts: Clinton with whopping advantage in recent WBUR/MassINC poll
By Results of a new poll carried out by WBUR/MassINC were published on October 10. The poll asked respondents from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who responded, 60.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 7 to September 10. A total of 506 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.1% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 63.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.
