Massachusetts: Clinton holds overwhelming lead in recent Western NE University poll
By Western NE University published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Western NE University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 65.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 24 to October 3. A total of 403 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts sees Clinton at 63.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Western NE University poll Clinton's poll average is 4.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.9% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.
