On October 10, MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 15 and September 17. The sample size was 835 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maine. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.