Colby College/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Colby College/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 4 to September 10, among a random sample of 779 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.9% for Clinton and 48.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Colby College/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that the PollyVote is 2.7 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.