SMORSMOR published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
SMORSMOR poll results
Of those who replied, 33.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 15 and September 17. The sample size was 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 40.2% for Clinton and 59.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Louisiana sees Trump at 58.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the SMORSMOR poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, the PollyVote is 0.8 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.