WTHR/Howey Politics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5 among 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 46.9% for Clinton and 53.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Indiana polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 54.9%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his corresponding numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.4 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.