WinthropWinthrop released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
WinthropWinthrop poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 26 among 475 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in South Carolina sees Trump at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the WinthropWinthrop poll Trump's poll average is 2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.