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Latest Winthrop*Winthrop* poll in South Carolina: Clinton trails by a slim margin


WinthropWinthrop released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

WinthropWinthrop poll results




Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 18 to September 26 among 475 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 47.5% for Clinton and 52.5% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

An average of recent polls in South Carolina sees Trump at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the WinthropWinthrop poll Trump's poll average is 2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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