On October 10, UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular value.
UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 27 and October 2. The sample size was 700 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.7%. Relative to her numbers in the UNLV/Hart Research (D)UNLV/Hart Research (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.