Results of a new poll administered by Press Herald/UNHPress Herald/UNH were released on October 10. The poll asked respondents from Maine for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Press Herald/UNHPress Herald/UNH poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 15 and September 20. The sample size was 513 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Press Herald/UNHPress Herald/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.