Results of a new poll conducted by News Journal/PublicMind were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Delaware for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
News Journal/PublicMind poll results
Of those who replied, 42.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 32.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 20 to July 24 with 715 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 56.8% for Clinton and 43.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Delaware sees Clinton at 60.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the News Journal/PublicMind poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Delaware. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 3.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.