Mason-Dixon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Mississippi were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Mason-Dixon poll results
The results show that 43.0% of interviewees plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between March 28 and March 30. The sample size was 625 registered voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-4.0 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 48.3% for Clinton and 51.7% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.0% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. Hence, Polly's forecast is 4.3 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.