Results of a new poll administered by Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ were distributed on October 10. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Nevada has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to September 29 among 800 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points, which means that the poll results for both candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 50.6% for Clinton and 49.4% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Nevada sees Clinton at 50.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.1 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Las Vegas Review-JournalLVRJ poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that the PollyVote is 0.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.