KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, participants from New Mexico were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 28 to October 2 with 594 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 58.2% for Clinton and 41.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New Mexico has Clinton at 57.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KOB-TV/SurveyUSAKOB-TV/SUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.