Latest DHM Research poll in Oregon: Trump trails by a sizable margin
By DHM Research published the results of a new poll on October 7. In this poll, interviewees from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
DHM Research poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 1 to September 6, among a random sample of 517 registered voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 60.3% for Clinton and 39.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 57.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Oregon. Relative to her numbers in the DHM Research poll Clinton's poll average is 3 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in Oregon. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.
