Results of a new poll conducted by Bloomberg were published on October 10. The poll asked participants from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 2 with 805 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 50.6% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 51.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.