On October 10, KSTP/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Minnesota were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 16 to September 20 among 625 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Minnesota polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.4%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than her corresponding numbers in the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Minnesota. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is negligible.