Results of a new poll carried out by KABC/SurveyUSA were published on October 10. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 59.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 27 and September 28. The sample size was 732 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 64.1% for Clinton and 35.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 61.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 2.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 4.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.