JMC Analytics published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24, among a random sample of 905 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 58.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Louisiana. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is negligible.