On October 10, JMC Analytics released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Louisiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
According to the results, 35.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 22 to September 24 with 905 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.3 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 58.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Louisiana. In comparison to his numbers in the JMC Analytics poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. That is, Polly's prediction is 2.7 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this difference is insignificant.