Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points better.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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