The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 53.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points better.
The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.