Indiana: New Monmouth poll shows Trump with 11 points lead
By Monmouth published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 36.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 13 to August 16 among 403 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 43.4% for Clinton and 56.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Indiana has Trump at 54.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Monmouth poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.1 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.
