WTHR/Howey Politics published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
WTHR/Howey Politics poll results
Of those who answered the question, 38.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 3 to October 5 among 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.9% for Clinton and 53.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently runs at 54.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. In comparison to his numbers in the WTHR/Howey Politics poll Trump's poll average is 1.8 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 56.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.4 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.