Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were spread on October 5. The poll asked participants from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 45.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 19 to September 21. A total of 700 likely voters responded. If one accounts for the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 59.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Illinois. This value is 5.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Emerson poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, the PollyVote is 3.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.