Results of a new poll conducted by LorasLoras were spread on October 5. The poll asked respondents from Illinois for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
LorasLoras poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 13 to September 16. A total of 600 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 59.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the LorasLoras poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Illinois. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.