Idaho: Overwhelming lead for Trump in recent Idaho Politics/Dan Jones poll
Idaho Politics/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Idaho were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Idaho Politics/Dan Jones poll results
According to the results, 23.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between July 5 and July 16. The sample size was 601 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 34.3% for Clinton and 65.7% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 65.8% of the two-party vote in Idaho. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.