Idaho: Overwhelming lead for Trump in recent Idaho Politics/Dan Jones poll

Idaho Politics/Dan Jones published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Idaho were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.

According to the results, 23.0% of participants are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out between July 5 and July 16. The sample size was 601 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 34.3% for Clinton and 65.7% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 65.8% of the two-party vote in Idaho. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.1 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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