Results of a new poll carried out by Gravis were distributed. The poll asked participants from Arizona for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 40.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 27 to August 27 among 1244 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.