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Gravis poll in Arizona: Clinton trails by a slight margin

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Results of a new poll carried out by Gravis were distributed. The poll asked participants from Arizona for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Gravis poll results
40

Clinton

44

Trump

The results show that 40.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 27 to August 27 among 1244 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

An average of recent polls in Arizona has Trump at 50.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that Polly's prediction is 0.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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