Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll on October 10. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of participants said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maryland sees Clinton at 69.4% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 63.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the combined PollyVote is 6.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is significant.