Results of a new poll administered by JMC Analytics were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
JMC Analytics poll results
Of those who responded, 38.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 20 to September 22. A total of 600 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.3% for Clinton and 53.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Georgia sees Trump at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than his respective numbers in the JMC Analytics poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the PollyVote is 0.2 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is insignificant.