Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 13 and September 21. The sample size was 659 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 46.8% for Clinton and 53.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 52.7%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.