Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Texas were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 36.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 7 and September 10. The sample size was 700 likely voters.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Texas. Compared to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 0.1 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 56.9% of the two-party vote in Texas. That is, Polly's prediction is 3.0 points above his polling numbers.