On October 10, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 28 to August 30 with 800 likely voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.0%. Compared to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.