Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 52.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 28 and August 30. The sample size was 800 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for Clinton and Trump differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 60.5% for Clinton and 39.5% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 62.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New York. Compared to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 61.8% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is negligible.