On October 10, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Missouri were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 34.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between September 9 and September 13. The sample size was 600 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 42.0% for Clinton and 58.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 56.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Missouri. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Missouri. Hence, Polly's forecast is 3.7 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.