Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 800 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.4 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine sees Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 2.6 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is negligible.