On October 10, Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arkansas were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 29.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 57.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 9 to September 13 among 600 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 33.7% for Clinton and 66.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Arkansas sees Trump at 64.0% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the Emerson poll Trump's poll average is 2.3 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. Hence, the PollyVote is 7.6 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.