ElonElon released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
ElonElon poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of participants plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 30, among a random sample of 660 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.5%. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the ElonElon poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is significant.