Results of a new poll conducted by ElonElon were distributed on October 10. The poll asked interviewees from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
ElonElon poll results
The results show that 45.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to September 30, among a random sample of 660 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 53.6% for Clinton and 46.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 51.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the ElonElon poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's forecast is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is significant.