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DeSart & Holbrook model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 50.6% for Clinton, and 49.4% for Trump in Iowa.

In Iowa, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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